Development of a Definition of Postacute Sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 Infection.

Importance: SARS-CoV-2 infection is associated with persistent, relapsing, or new symptoms or other health effects occurring after acute infection, termed postacute sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 infection (PASC), also known as long COVID. Characterizing PASC requires analysis of prospectively and uniformly collected data from diverse uninfected and infected individuals. Objective: To develop a definition of PASC using self-reported symptoms and describe PASC frequencies across cohorts, vaccination status, and number of infections. Design, Setting, and Participants: Prospective observational cohort study of adults with and without SARS-CoV-2 infection at 85 enrolling sites (hospitals, health centers, community organizations) located in 33 states plus Washington, DC, and Puerto Rico. Participants who were enrolled in the RECOVER adult cohort before April 10, 2023, completed a symptom survey 6 months or more after acute symptom onset or test date. Selection included population-based, volunteer, and convenience sampling. Exposure: SARS-CoV-2 infection. Main Outcomes and Measures: PASC and 44 participant-reported symptoms (with severity thresholds). Results: A total of 9764 participants (89% SARS-CoV-2 infected; 71% female; 16% Hispanic/Latino; 15% non-Hispanic Black; median age, 47 years [IQR, 35-60]) met selection criteria. Adjusted odds ratios were 1.5 or greater (infected vs uninfected participants) for 37 symptoms. Symptoms contributing to PASC score included postexertional malaise, fatigue, brain fog, dizziness, gastrointestinal symptoms, palpitations, changes in sexual desire or capacity, loss of or change in smell or taste, thirst, chronic cough, chest pain, and abnormal movements. Among 2231 participants first infected on or after December 1, 2021, and enrolled within 30 days of infection, 224 (10% [95% CI, 8.8%-11%]) were PASC positive at 6 months. Conclusions and Relevance: A definition of PASC was developed based on symptoms in a prospective cohort study. As a first step to providing a framework for other investigations, iterative refinement that further incorporates other clinical features is needed to support actionable definitions of PASC.

Rehabilitation Therapy Allocation and Changes in Physical Function Among Patients Hospitalized Due to COVID-19: A Retrospective Cohort Analysis.

OBJECTIVE: Limited staffing and initial transmission concerns have limited rehabilitation services during the COVID-19 pandemic. The purpose of this analysis was to determine the associations between Activity Measure for Post-Acute Care (AM-PAC) mobility categories and allocation of rehabilitation, and in-hospital AM-PAC score change and receipt of rehabilitation services for patients with COVID-19. METHODS: This was a retrospective cohort study of electronic health record data from 1 urban hospital, including adults with a COVID-19 diagnosis, admitted August 2020 to April 2021. Patients were stratified by level of medical care (intensive care unit [ICU] and floor). Therapy allocation (referral for rehabilitation, receipt of rehabilitation, and visit frequency) was the primary outcome; change in AM-PAC score was secondary. AM-PAC Basic Mobility categories (None [21-24], Minimum [18-21], Moderate [10-17], and Maximum [6-9]) were the main predictor variable. Primary analysis included logistic and linear regression, adjusted for covariates. RESULTS: A total of 1397 patients (ICU: n = 360; floor: n = 1037) were included. AM-PAC mobility category was associated with therapy allocation outcomes for floor but not patients in the ICU: the Moderate category had greater adjusted odds of referral (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 10.88; 95% CI = 5.71-21.91), receipt of at least 1 visit (aOR = 3.45; 95% CI = 1.51-8.55), and visit frequency (percentage mean difference) (aOR = 42.14; 95% CI = 12.45-79.67). The secondary outcome of AM-PAC score improvement was highest for patients in the ICU who were given at least 1 rehabilitation therapy visit (aOR = 5.31; 95% CI = 1.90-15.52). CONCLUSION: AM-PAC mobility categories were associated with rehabilitation allocation outcomes for floor patients. AM-PAC score improvement was highest among patients requiring ICU-level care with at least 1 rehabilitation therapy visit. IMPACT: Use of AM-PAC Basic Mobility categories may help improve decisions for rehabilitation therapy allocation among patients who do not require critical care, particularly during times of limited resources.

Using Wearable Technology to Quantify Physical Activity Recovery: Secondary Report From the AFTER (App-Facilitated Tele-Rehabilitation) Program for COVID-19 Survivors Randomized Study.

BACKGROUND: Knowledge on physical activity recovery after COVID-19 survival is limited. The AFTER (App-Facilitated Tele-Rehabilitation) program for COVID-19 survivors randomized participants, following hospital discharge, to either education and unstructured physical activity or a telerehabilitation program. Step count data were collected as a secondary outcome, and we found no significant differences in total step count trajectories between groups at 6 weeks. Further step count data were not analyzed. OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this analysis was to examine step count trajectories and correlates among all participants (combined into a single group) across the 12-week study period. METHODS: Linear mixed models with random effects were used to model daily steps over the number of study days. Models with 0, 1, and 2 inflection points were considered, and the final model was selected based on the highest log-likelihood value. RESULTS: Participants included 44 adults (41 with available Fitbit [Fitbit LLC] data). Initially, step counts increased by an average of 930 (95% CI 547-1312; P<.001) steps per week, culminating in an average daily step count of 7658 (95% CI 6257-9059; P<.001) at the end of week 3. During the remaining 9 weeks of the study, weekly step counts increased by an average of 67 (95% CI -30 to 163; P<.001) steps per week, resulting in a final estimate of 8258 (95% CI 6933-9584; P<.001) steps. CONCLUSIONS: Participants showed a marked improvement in daily step counts during the first 3 weeks of the study, followed by more gradual improvement in the remaining 9 weeks. Physical activity data and step count recovery trajectories may be considered surrogates for physiological recovery, although further research is needed to examine this relationship. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT04663945; https://tinyurl.com/2p969ced.

Conceptualising the episodic nature of disability among adults living with Long COVID: a qualitative study.

INTRODUCTION: Our aim was to describe episodic nature of disability among adults living with Long COVID. METHODS: We conducted a community-engaged qualitative descriptive study involving online semistructured interviews and participant visual illustrations. We recruited participants via collaborator community organisations in Canada, Ireland, UK and USA.We recruited adults who self-identified as living with Long COVID with diversity in age, gender, race/ethnicity, sexual orientation and duration since initial COVID infection between December 2021 and May 2022. We used a semistructured interview guide to explore experiences of disability living with Long COVID, specifically health-related challenges and how they were experienced over time. We asked participants to draw their health trajectory and conducted a group-based content analysis. RESULTS: Among the 40 participants, the median age was 39 years (IQR: 32-49); majority were women (63%), white (73%), heterosexual (75%) and living with Long COVID for ≥1 year (83%). Participants described their disability experiences as episodic in nature, characterised by fluctuations in presence and severity of health-related challenges (disability) that may occur both within a day and over the long-term living with Long COVID. They described living with 'ups and downs', 'flare-ups' and 'peaks' followed by 'crashes', 'troughs' and 'valleys', likened to a 'yo-yo', 'rolling hills' and 'rollercoaster ride' with 'relapsing/remitting', 'waxing/waning', 'fluctuations' in health. Drawn illustrations demonstrated variety of trajectories across health dimensions, some more episodic than others. Uncertainty intersected with the episodic nature of disability, characterised as unpredictability of episodes, their length, severity and triggers, and process of long-term trajectory, which had implications on broader health. CONCLUSION: Among this sample of adults living with Long COVID, experiences of disability were described as episodic, characterised by fluctuating health challenges, which may be unpredictable in nature. Results can help to better understand experiences of disability among adults living with Long COVID to inform healthcare and rehabilitation.

Impact of Alcohol Misuse on Requirements for Critical Care Services and Development of Hospital Delirium in Patients With COVID-19 pneumonia.

Alcohol misuse has been associated with increased morbidity in the setting of pulmonary infections, including the need for critical care resource utilization and development of delirium. How alcohol misuse impacts morbidity and outcomes among patients admitted with COVID-19 pneumonia is not well described. We sought to determine if alcohol misuse was associated with an increased need for critical care resources and development of delirium among patients hospitalized with COVID-19 pneumonia. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. SETTING: Twelve University of Colorado hospitals between March 2020 and April 2021. PATIENTS: Adults with a COVID-19 diagnosis. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: The primary outcome was admission to the ICU. Secondary outcomes included need for mechanical ventilation, development of delirium, and in-hospital mortality. Alcohol misuse was defined by International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision codes. Of 5,979 patients hospitalized with COVID-19, 26% required ICU admission and 15.4% required mechanical ventilation. Delirium developed in 4.5% and 10.5% died during hospitalization. Alcohol misuse was identified in 4%. In analyses adjusted for age, sex, body mass index, diabetes, and liver disease, alcohol misuse was associated with increased odds of ICU admission (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 1.46; p < 0.01), mechanical ventilation (aOR, 1.43; p = 0.03), and delirium (aOR, 5.55; p < 0.01) compared with patients without misuse. Mortality rates were not associated with alcohol misuse alone, although the presence of both alcohol misuse and in-hospital delirium significantly increased odds of in-hospital death (aOR, 2.60; p = 0.04). CONCLUSIONS: Among patients hospitalized with COVID-19, alcohol misuse was associated with increased utilization of critical care resources including ICU admission and mechanical ventilation. Delirium was an important modifiable risk factor associated with worse outcomes in hospitalized patients with alcohol misuse, including increased odds of death.

Perspectives of people living with HIV age 50 and over regarding barriers and resources for care.

ABSTRACTWith early and effective antiretroviral therapy leading to improved life expectancy in people with HIV (PWH), PWH aged 50 or older face concerns and issues related to aging. Providers at the University of Colorado identified a need to assess the healthcare needs of PWH aged 50 and older at the UCHealth Infectious Diseases/Travel (TEAM) Clinic in Aurora, Colorado. A survey was developed to illuminate participants' general rating of their health, factors that made it challenging to get the healthcare needed prior to COVID-19 and during COVID-19, and types of healthcare appointments and providers that would make a difference in healthcare experience. Descriptive statistics and brief thematic analysis of open-ended questions found that most participants rated their current health as very good or good. Participants noted that connecting to resources and appointment scheduling were the top challenges prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, and during the COVID-19 pandemic, participants described challenges with resource connection, communication with providers, and wait times. To reduce these barriers, telehealth video appointments, healthcare visits with a provider who specializes in aging, and healthcare visits with providers who specialize in aging if co-located in the HIV clinic were recognized as beneficial resources from the perspectives of participants.

Current Challenges and Solutions for Clinical Management and Care of People with HIV: Findings from the 12th Annual International HIV and Aging Workshop.

People with HIV on combination antiretroviral therapy (ART) have longer life expectancy and are increasingly experiencing age-related comorbidities. Thus, aging with HIV has become a central issue in clinical care and research, which has been particularly challenging with the intersection of the ongoing coronavirus (COVID)-19 pandemic. Since 2009, the International Workshop on HIV and Aging has served as a multidisciplinary platform to share research findings from cross-disciplinary fields along with community advocates to address critical issues in HIV and aging. In this article, we summarize the key oral presentations from the 12th Annual International Workshop on HIV and Aging, held virtually on September 23rd and 24th, 2021. The topics ranged from basic science research on biological mechanisms of aging to quality of life and delivery of care under the COVID-19 pandemic. This workshop enriched our understanding of HIV and aging under the COVID-19 pandemic, identified challenges and opportunities to combat the impact of COVID-19 on HIV communities, and also provided updated research and future directions of the field to move HIV and aging research forward, with the ultimate goal of successful aging for older people with HIV.

Impact of Alcohol Misuse on Requirements for Critical Care Services and Development of Hospital Delirium in Patients With COVID-19 pneumonia

OBJECTIVES: Alcohol misuse has been associated with increased morbidity in the setting of pulmonary infections, including the need for critical care resource utilization and development of delirium. How alcohol misuse impacts morbidity and outcomes among patients admitted with COVID-19 pneumonia is not well described. We sought to determine if alcohol misuse was associated with an increased need for critical care resources and development of delirium among patients hospitalized with COVID-19 pneumonia. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. SETTING: Twelve University of Colorado hospitals between March 2020 and April 2021. PATIENTS: Adults with a COVID-19 diagnosis. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: The primary outcome was admission to the ICU. Secondary outcomes included need for mechanical ventilation, development of delirium, and in-hospital mortality. Alcohol misuse was defined by International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision codes. Of 5,979 patients hospitalized with COVID-19, 26% required ICU admission and 15.4% required mechanical ventilation. Delirium developed in 4.5% and 10.5% died during hospitalization. Alcohol misuse was identified in 4%. In analyses adjusted for age, sex, body mass index, diabetes, and liver disease, alcohol misuse was associated with increased odds of ICU admission (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 1.46;p < 0.01), mechanical ventilation (aOR, 1.43;p = 0.03), and delirium (aOR, 5.55;p < 0.01) compared with patients without misuse. Mortality rates were not associated with alcohol misuse alone, although the presence of both alcohol misuse and in-hospital delirium significantly increased odds of in-hospital death (aOR, 2.60;p = 0.04). CONCLUSIONS: Among patients hospitalized with COVID-19, alcohol misuse was associated with increased utilization of critical care resources including ICU admission and mechanical ventilation. Delirium was an important modifiable risk factor associated with worse outcomes in hospitalized patients with alcohol misuse, including increased odds of death.

Predictors of adverse outcomes in aged patients critically ill with COVID-19: a retrospective study.

Older patients represent an inordinate proportion of intensive care unit (ICU) admissions and ICU mortality associated with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). In this retrospective cohort study, we examine 198 patients, aged 18 years or older, admitted to the ICU from March to June 2020. We aim to understand the relationships between age, number of comorbidities, and independent living prior to admission on outcomes of mortality, length of stay, renal failure, respiratory failure, and shock. In this cohort, we find that overall mortality was associated with respiratory failure severity (for every decrease of P:F by 50, odds ratio (OR) 2.98 (1.65-6.08)), acute renal failure (OR 4.61 (1.2-19.7)), and age 65 or greater (OR: 3.7 (1.86-7.36)). Surprisingly, increasing age was associated with less severe respiratory failure (R = 0.22, p < 0.01). When adjusting for pre-existing chronic kidney disease, age was not associated with development of acute kidney injury (OR: 1.01 (0.99-1.03)). While chronologic age is associated with mortality, it is not associated independently with severe end organ damage. This is consistent with growing evidence suggesting that a complex interplay between multimorbidity, immunosenescence, and physiologic age is primarily responsible for the vulnerability to COVID-19.

Safety, feasibility and initial efficacy of an app-facilitated telerehabilitation (AFTER) programme for COVID-19 survivors: a pilot randomised study.

OBJECTIVES: Determine the safety, feasibility and initial efficacy of a multicomponent telerehabilitation programme for COVID-19 survivors. DESIGN: Pilot randomised feasibility study. SETTING: In-home telerehabilitation. PARTICIPANTS: 44 participants (21 female, mean age 52 years) discharged home following hospitalisation with COVID-19 (with and without intensive care unit (ICU) stay). INTERVENTIONS: Participants were block randomised 2:1 to receive 12 individual biobehaviourally informed, app-facilitated, multicomponent telerehabilitation sessions with a licenced physical therapist (n=29) or to a control group (n=15) consisting of education on exercise and COVID-19 recovery trajectory, physical activity and vitals monitoring, and weekly check-ins with study staff. Interventions were 100% remote and occurred over 12 weeks. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome was feasibility, including safety and session adherence. Secondary outcomes included preliminary efficacy outcomes including tests of function and balance; patient-reported outcome measures; a cognitive assessment; and average daily step count. The 30 s chair stand test was the main secondary (efficacy) outcome. RESULTS: No adverse events (AEs) occurred during testing or in telerehabilitation sessions; 38% (11/29) of the intervention group compared with 60% (9/15) of the control group experienced an AE (p=0.21), most of which were minor, over the course of the 12-week study. 27 of 29 participants (93%; 95% CI 77% to 99%) receiving the intervention attended ≥75% of sessions. Both groups demonstrated clinically meaningful improvement in secondary outcomes with no statistically significant differences between groups. CONCLUSION: Fully remote telerehabilitation was safe, feasible, had high adherence for COVID-19 recovery, and may apply to other medically complex patients including those with barriers to access care. This pilot study was designed to evaluate feasibility; further efficacy evaluation is needed. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT04663945.

Inference following multiple imputation for generalized additive models: an investigation of the median p-value rule with applications to the Pulmonary Hypertension Association Registry and Colorado COVID-19 hospitalization data.

BACKGROUND: Missing data prove troublesome in data analysis; at best they reduce a study's statistical power and at worst they induce bias in parameter estimates. Multiple imputation via chained equations is a popular technique for dealing with missing data. However, techniques for combining and pooling results from fitted generalized additive models (GAMs) after multiple imputation have not been well explored. METHODS: We simulated missing data under MCAR, MAR, and MNAR frameworks and utilized random forest and predictive mean matching imputation to investigate a variety of rules for combining GAMs after multiple imputation with binary and normally distributed outcomes. We compared multiple pooling procedures including the "D2" method, the Cauchy combination test, and the median p-value (MPV) rule. The MPV rule involves simply computing and reporting the median p-value across all imputations. Other ad hoc methods such as a mean p-value rule and a single imputation method are investigated. The viability of these methods in pooling results from B-splines is also examined for normal outcomes. An application of these various pooling techniques is then performed on two case studies, one which examines the effect of elevation on a six-minute walk distance (a normal outcome) for patients with pulmonary arterial hypertension, and the other which examines risk factors for intubation in hospitalized COVID-19 patients (a dichotomous outcome). RESULTS: In comparison to the results from generalized additive models fit on full datasets, the median p-value rule performs as well as if not better than the other methods examined. In situations where the alternative hypothesis is true, the Cauchy combination test appears overpowered and alternative methods appear underpowered, while the median p-value rule yields results similar to those from analyses of complete data. CONCLUSIONS: For pooling results after fitting GAMs to multiply imputed datasets, the median p-value is a simple yet useful approach which balances both power to detect important associations and control of Type I errors.

Prospective telehealth analysis of functional performance, frailty, quality of life, and mental health after COVID-19 hospitalization.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 is a global pandemic with poorly understood long-term consequences. Determining the trajectory of recovery following COVID-19 hospitalization is critical for prioritizing care, allocating resources, facilitating prognosis, and informing rehabilitation. The purpose of this study was to prospectively evaluate recovery following COVID-19 hospitalization. METHODS: Participants age 18 years or older who were hospitalized for ≥24 h due to COVID-19 completed phone/video call virtual assessments (including the 10-time chair rise test) and survey forms at three time points (2-6, 12, and 18 weeks) after hospital discharge. Univariate logistic and linear regression models assessed the associations of the outcomes with primary predictors (categorical age, sex, race/ethnicity group, and categorical pre-hospitalization frailty) at baseline; the same were used to assess differences in change from week 2-6 (continuous outcomes) or outcome persistence/worsening (categorical) at last contact. RESULTS: One hundred nine adults (age 53.0 [standard deviation 13.1]; 53% female) participated including 43 (39%) age 60 or greater; 59% identified as an ethnic and/or racial minority. Over 18 weeks, the mean time to complete the 10-time chair rise test decreased (i.e., improved) by 6.0 s (95% CI: 4.1, 7.9 s; p < 0.001); this change did not differ by pre-hospital frailty, race/ethnicity group, or sex, but those age ≥ 60 had greater improvement. At weeks 2-6, 67% of participants reported a worse Clinical Frailty Scale category compared to their pre-hospitalization level, whereas 42% reported a worse frailty score at 18 weeks. Participants who did not return to pre-hospitalization levels were more likely to be female, younger, and report a pre-hospitalization category of 'very fit' or 'well'. CONCLUSIONS: We found that functional performance improved from weeks 2-6 to 18 weeks of follow-up; that incident clinical frailty developed in some individuals following COVID-19; and that age, sex, race/ethnicity, and pre-hospitalization frailty status may impact recovery from COVID-19. Notably, individuals age 60 and older were more likely than those under age 45 years to return to their pre-hospitalization status and to make greater improvements in functional performance. The results of the present study provide insight into the trajectory of recovery among a representative cohort of individuals hospitalized due to COVID-19.

Long COVID and episodic disability: advancing the conceptualisation, measurement and knowledge of episodic disability among people living with Long COVID - protocol for a mixed-methods study.

INTRODUCTION: As the prevalence of Long COVID increases, there is a critical need for a comprehensive assessment of disability. Our aims are to: (1) characterise disability experiences among people living with Long COVID in Canada, UK, USA and Ireland; and (2) develop a patient-reported outcome measure to assess the presence, severity and episodic nature of disability with Long COVID. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: In phase 1, we will conduct semistructured interviews with adults living with Long COVID to explore experiences of disability (dimensions, uncertainty, trajectories, influencing contextual factors) and establish an episodic disability (ED) framework in the context of Long COVID (n~10 each country). Using the conceptual framework, we will establish the Long COVID Episodic Disability Questionnaire (EDQ). In phase 2, we will examine the validity (construct, structural) and reliability (internal consistency, test-retest) of the EDQ for use in Long COVID. We will electronically administer the EDQ and four health status criterion measures with adults living with Long COVID, and readminister the EDQ 1 week later (n~170 each country). We will use Rasch analysis to refine the EDQ, and confirm structural and cross-cultural validity. We will calculate Cronbach's alphas (internal consistency reliability), and intraclass correlation coefficients (test-retest reliability), and examine correlations for hypotheses theorising relationships between EDQ and criterion measure scores (construct validity). Using phase 2 data, we will characterise the profile of disability using structural equation modelling techniques to examine relationships between dimensions of disability and the influence of intrinsic and extrinsic contextual factors. This research involves an academic-clinical-community partnership building on foundational work in ED measurement, Long COVID and rehabilitation. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This study was approved by the University of Toronto Research Ethics Board. Knowledge translation will occur with community collaborators in the form of presentations and publications in open access peer-reviewed journals and presentations.

Disparities in the allocation of inpatient physical and occupational therapy services for patients with COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: Survivors of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) experience significant morbidity with reduced physical function and impairments in activities of daily living. The use of in-hospital rehabilitation therapy may reduce long-term impairments. OBJECTIVE: To determine the frequency of therapy referral and treatment amongst hospitalized COVID-19 patients, assess for disparities in referral and receipt of therapy, and identify potentially modifiable factors contributing to disparities in therapy allocation. DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Retrospective cohort study using data collected from the University of Colorado Health Data Compass data warehouse assessing therapy referral rates and estimated delivery based on available administrative billing. MEASUREMENTS: Multivariable logistic regression was used to determine the association between sex and/or underrepresented minority race with therapy referral or delivery. RESULTS: Amongst 6239 COVID-19-related hospitalization, a therapy referral was present in 3952 patients (51.9%). Hispanic ethnicity was independently associated with lower odds of receipt of therapy referral (adjusted OR [aOR]: 0.78, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.67-0.93, p = .001). Advanced age (aOR: 1.53, 95% CI: 1.46-1.62, p < .001), greater COVID illness severity (aOR for intensive care unit admission: 1.63, 95% CI: 1.37-1.94, p < .01) and hospital stay (aOR: 1.14, 95% CI: 1.12-1.15, p < .01) were positively associated with referral. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In a cohort of patients hospitalized for COVID-19 across a multicenter healthcare system, we found that referral rates and delivery of physical therapy and/or occupational therapy sessions were significantly reduced for patients of Hispanic identity compared with patients of non-Hispanic, Caucasian identity after adjustment for potential confounding by available demographic and illness severity variables.

Disability and self-care living strategies among adults living with HIV during the COVID-19 pandemic.

BACKGROUND: Events associated with the COVID-19 pandemic, such as physical distancing, closure of community services, postponement of health appointments, and loss of employment can lead to social isolation, financial uncertainty, and interruption of antiretroviral adherence, resulting in additional health-related challenges (disability) experienced among adults living with chronic illness such as HIV. 'Living strategies' is a concept derived from the perspectives of people living with HIV, defined as behaviors, attitudes and beliefs adopted by people living with HIV to help deal with disability associated with HIV and multi-morbidity. Our aim was to describe disability among adults living with HIV and self-care living strategies used during the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: Adults living with HIV in Toronto, Ontario, Canada, including some with pre-pandemic HIV Disability Questionnaire (HDQ) data, completed a cross-sectional web-based survey between June-August 2020. The survey included the HDQ and questions about self-care living strategy use during the pandemic. We compared disability (HDQ) scores prior to versus during the pandemic using paired t-tests. We reported the proportion of participants who engaged in various living strategies at least 'a few times a week' or 'everyday' during the pandemic. RESULTS: Of the 63 respondents, 84% were men, median age 57 years, and 62% lived alone. During the pandemic the greatest disability severity was in the uncertainty [median 30; Interquartile range (IQR): 16, 43] and mental-emotional (25; IQR: 14, 41) domains. Among the 51 participants with pre-pandemic data, HDQ severity scores were significantly greater (worse) during the pandemic (vs prior) in all domains. Greatest change from prior to during the pandemic was in the mental-emotional domain for presence (17.7; p < 0.001), severity (11.4; p < 0.001), and episodic nature (9.3; p < 0.05) of disability. Most participants (> 60%) reported engaging a 'few times a week' or 'everyday' in self-care strategies associated with maintaining sense of control and adopting positive attitudes and beliefs. CONCLUSIONS: People living with HIV reported high levels of uncertainty and mental-emotional health challenges during the pandemic. Disability increased across all HDQ dimensions, with the greatest worsening in the mental-emotional health domain. Results provide an understanding of disability and self-care strategy use during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Predicting prognosis in COVID-19 patients using machine learning and readily available clinical data.

RATIONALE: Prognostic tools for aiding in the treatment of hospitalized COVID-19 patients could help improve outcome by identifying patients at higher or lower risk of severe disease. The study objective was to develop models to stratify patients by risk of severe outcomes during COVID-19 hospitalization using readily available information at hospital admission. METHODS: Hierarchical ensemble classification models were trained on a set of 229 patients hospitalized with COVID-19 to predict severe outcomes, including ICU admission, development of acute respiratory distress syndrome, or intubation, using easily attainable attributes including basic patient characteristics, vital signs at admission, and basic lab results collected at time of presentation. Each test stratifies patients into groups of increasing risk. An additional cohort of 330 patients was used for blinded, independent validation. Shapley value analysis evaluated which attributes contributed most to the models' predictions of risk. MAIN RESULTS: Test performance was assessed using precision (positive predictive value) and recall (sensitivity) of the final risk groups. All test cut-offs were fixed prior to blinded validation. In development and validation, the tests achieved precision in the lowest risk groups near or above 0.9. The proportion of patients with severe outcomes significantly increased across increasing risk groups. While the importance of attributes varied by test and patient, C-reactive protein, lactate dehydrogenase, and D-dimer were often found to be important in the assignment of risk. CONCLUSIONS: Risk of severe outcomes for patients hospitalized with COVID-19 infection can be assessed using machine learning-based models based on attributes routinely collected at hospital admission.

Elevated glycohemoglobin is linked to critical illness in CoVID-19: a retrospective analysis.

BACKGROUND: Several studies have explored hospitalization risk factors with the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection. Our goal was to identify clinical characteristics outside of laboratory or radiologic data associated with intubation or death within 7 days of admission. METHODS: The first 436 patients admitted to the University of Colorado Hospital (Denver metropolitan area) with confirmed COVID-19 were included. Demographics, comorbidities, and select medications were collected by chart abstraction. Missing height for calculating body mass index (BMI) was imputed using the median height for patients' sex and race/ethnicity. Adjusted odds ratios (aOR) were estimated using multivariable logistic regression and a minimax concave penalty (MCP) regularized logistic regression explored prediction. RESULTS: Participants had a mean [standard deviation (SD)] age 55 (17), BMI 30.9 (8.2), 55% were male and 80% were ethnic/racial minorities. Increasing age [aOR: 1.24 (1.07, 1.45) per 10 years], higher BMI (aOR 1.03 (1.00, 1.06), and poorly controlled diabetes [hemoglobin A1C (HbA1c) ⩾ 8] (aOR 2.26 (1.24, 4.12) were significantly (p < 0.05) associated with greater odds of intubation or death. Female sex [aOR: 0.63, 95% CI (0.40, 0.98); p value = 0.043] was associated with lesser odds of intubation or death. The odds of death and/or intubation increased 19% for every 1 unit increase in HbA1c value [OR: 1.19 (1.01, 1.43); p = 0.04]. Our final MCP model included indicators of A1C ⩾ 8, age > 65, sex, and minority status, but predicted intubation/death only slightly better than random chance [area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) = 0.61 (0.56, 0.67)]. CONCLUSION: In a hospitalized patient cohort with COVID-19, worsening control of diabetes as evidenced by higher HbA1c was associated with increased risk of intubation or death within 7 days of admission. These results complement and help clarify previous associations found between diabetes and acute disease in COVID-19. Importantly, our analysis is missing some known predictors of severity in COVID-19. Our predictive model had limited success, suggesting unmeasured factors contribute to disease severity differences.

Diagnostic Utility of a Ferritin-to-Procalcitonin Ratio to Differentiate Patients With COVID-19 From Those With Bacterial Pneumonia: A Multicenter Study.

BACKGROUND: There is an urgent need for accurate, rapid, inexpensive biomarkers that can differentiate coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) from bacterial pneumonia. We assess the role of the ferritin-to-procalcitonin (F/P) ratio to classify pneumonia cases into those due to COVID-19 vs those due to bacterial pathogens. METHODS: This multicenter case-control study compared patients with COVID-19 with those with bacterial pneumonia, admitted between March 1 and May 31, 2020. Patients with COVID-19 and bacterial pneumonia co-infection were excluded. The F/P in patients with COVID-19 vs with bacterial pneumonia were compared. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis determined the sensitivity and specificity of various cutoff F/P values for COVID-19 vs bacterial pneumonia. RESULTS: A total of 242 COVID-19 pneumonia cases and 34 bacterial pneumonia controls were included. Patients with COVID-19 pneumonia had a lower mean age (57.1 vs 64.4 years; P = .02) and a higher body mass index (30.74 vs 27.15 kg/m2; P = .02) compared with patients with bacterial pneumonia. Cases and controls had a similar proportion of women (47% vs 53%; P = .5), and COVID-19 patients had a higher prevalence of diabetes mellitus (32.6% vs 12%; P = .01). The median F/P was significantly higher in patients with COVID-19 (4037.5) compared with the F/P in bacterial pneumonia (802; P < .001). An F/P ≥877, used to diagnose COVID-19, resulted in a sensitivity of 85% and a specificity of 56%, with a positive predictive value of 93.2% and a likelihood ratio of 1.92. In multivariable analyses, an F/P ≥877 was associated with greater odds of identifying a COVID-19 case (odds ratio, 11.27; 95% CI, 4-31.2; P < .001). CONCLUSIONS: An F/P ≥877 increases the likelihood of COVID-19 pneumonia compared with bacterial pneumonia.

Comorbidities and health care systems differences among states as it relates to COVID-19

A multiple linear regression analysis was performed on 12 independent variable predictors to determine the possible case fatality rates at the state level. F, male to female ratio;COPD, congestive obstructive pulmonary disease;CVD, cardiovascular disease;DM, diabetes mellitus;HTN, hypertension;BMI, body mass index. *No Hawaiian or Pacific Islander minority groups reported. &No Hawaiian, Pacific Islander, or Native American minority groups reported.